Every Friday, I like to take a step back and give you a snapshot of what’s inside my account and how I’m thinking about things.

Economic forecasts are about as reliable as weather forecasts. They aren’t always accurate and can change unexpectedly. Nevertheless, I find it helpful to at least have some sense for the season—is it the dead of winter or more like a calm spring?

Here’s how things might feel in the U.S. stock and bond markets over the next six months:

Here’s a summary of what I bought and sold this week (July 27-31):

Here are the investments currently inside my account.

In terms of individual positions, I’m feeling good about the fundamentals on CMC, TSM, and TREX. HYDR is a small, more speculative position. And I’m actively looking for the right time to sell the rest of my PCT shares.

In terms of the economic mood, the winds are still looking pretty fair for the rest of this year, especially starting mid-August.

And in terms of trade timing, this week was an important reminder on the value of buying things incrementally. I got excited and bought a 3% stake in TSM last week because I think it’s such a great company. But I would have been better served by buying 1% at a time. So, I’ve added incremental purchases to my buy-checklist.

LEGAL, INVESTMENT AND TAX NOTICE: This information is not intended to be and should not be treated as legal advice, investment advice or tax advice. The reader should under no circumstances rely upon this information as a substitute for obtaining specific advice from their own advisors.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. No representation is being made that any investment, strategy, or methodology discussed will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Market conditions, economic factors, and individual circumstances may change, which may materially affect investment outcomes.